Future fire danger

Building on the existing high quality fine–scale climate information and the capacity of the Climate Futures for Tasmania project, the Future Fire Danger study examined changes in bushfire meteorology and fire danger hazards and risks. A unique aspect of the study was to understand the changes in the risk of fire danger in Tasmania and to provide this information to the fire agencies that help communities prepare for emergencies.

This study provides the Tasmanian Government with the best available scientific evidence for our bushfire management planning. The report contains the information for our fire agencies to confidently prioritise and develop future bushfire preparation strategies.

Tasmania’s fire agencies were actively involved with the research from the beginning, guiding the research questions. Led by Professor Nathan Bindof and authored by Dr Paul Fox–Hughes, this collaborative study has demonstrated innovative leadership by involving and engaging stakeholders on all levels.

The projections indicate:

  • a steady increase in fire danger in spring
  • a lengthening of the fire season
  • more days at the highest fire danger ratings at some locations

The following papers were published as a result of this project

Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R.M.B., Lee G, Grose, M, and Bindoff, N (2014) Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 309–321

Grose, M.R., Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R.M.B., Bindoff, N.L. (2014) Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania. Climatic Change 1-2: 255- 269 (doi 10.1007/s10584-014-1070-y)

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