Climate Futures Publications

In review:

Harris, R.M.B.1,2, Loeffler, F.1, Rumm, A. 3, Fischer, C. 1, Horchler, P. 4, Scholz, M.1, Foeckler, F. 3, Henle, K.1 (In review) Is it possible to attribute biodiversity responses to extreme events under climate change? The case of floodplain communities. Scientific Reports

 

2019

Abram N., Adler C., Alegria A., Bindoff N.L., Cheng L., Cheong S., Cheung W., Collins M., Derksen C., Ekaykin A., Frölicher T., Garschagen M., Gattuso J-P., Glavovic B., Gruber S., Guinder V., Hallberg R., Harper S., Hilmi N., Hinkel J., Hirabayashi Y., Hock R., Hollowed A., Jacot Des Combes H., Kairo J., Magnan A, Masson-Delmotte V., Robin Mathews J., McInnes K., Meredith M., Mintenbeck K., Morin S., Nicolai M., Okem A., Oppenheimer M., Orlove B., Petzold J., Pirani A., Poloczanska E., Pörtner H-O., Prakash A., Rasul G., Rivera-Arriaga E., Roberts D., Schuur E., Sebesvari Z., Sommerkorn M., Sutherland M., Tagliabue A., Van De Wal R., Williamson P., Yu R., Zhai P, (2019), IPCC, Special Report Oceans and Cryospheres in Changing Climate, Cambridge University Press, 2019 (submitted)

Bindoff N., Cheung, W., Kairo Javier Arístegui J., Guinder V., Hallberg R., Hilmi N., Jiao N., Saiful Karim M., Levin L., O’Donoghue S., Purca Cuicapusa S.,  Rinkevich B., Suga T., Tagliabue A., Williamson P, (2019) Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities, IPCC Special Report Oceans and Cryospheres in Changing Climate, Cambridge University Press, 2019 (submitted)

Bindoff N.L., Remenyi, T.A., Love P.T., Harris R.M.B. (2019) ACE CRC Position Analysis: Making climate science impacts clear through end-user engagement. Antarctic Climate Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia. 40 pp.

Earl, N. and Simmonds, I., 2019. Sub synoptic scale features of the South Australia Storm of September 2016–Part II: analysis of mechanisms driving the gusts. Weather74(9), pp.301-307.

Earl, N., Simmonds, I. and Rudeva, I., 2019. Sub‐synoptic scale features associated with extreme surface gusts during the South Australia Storm of September 2016–Part I: characteristics of the event. Weather74(8), pp.278-285.

Fischer, C.; Damm, C.; Foeckler, F.; Gelhaus, M.; Gerstner, L.; Harris, R. M. B., Hoffmann, T.G.; Iwanowski, J.; Kasperidus, H.; Mehl, D.; Podschun, S.A.; Rumm, A.; Stammel, B.; Scholz, M. (2019) The “Habitat Provision” Index for Assessing Floodplain Biodiversity and Restoration Potential as an Ecosystem Service—Method and Application. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 7 (483), doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00483.

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T., P. Fox-Hughes, Peter Love, Bindoff, N.L. (2019) An assessment of the viability of prescribed burning as a management tool under a changing climate. A Report for the National Bushfire Mitigation – Tasmanian Grants Program (NBMP). Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia.

King, A.D., Butler, A.H., Jucker, M., Earl, N.O. and Rudeva, I., 2019. Observed relationships between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European climate extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

Love, P. T., Remenyi, T. A., Harris, R. M. B., Bindoff N. L. (2019), Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Climate Change and Bushfire Research Initiative, Technical Report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania.

Ojeda, J.J.; Rezaei, E.E.; Remenyi, T.A.; Mathew A. Webb, M.A.; Webber, H.A.; Kamali, B.; Harris, R.M.B.; Brown, J.N.; Kidd, D.B.; Mohammed, C.L.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Meinke, H. (2019) Effects of soil and climate data aggregation on simulated potato yield and irrigation water requirement. Science of the Total Environment.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135589

Schroeter, B. J. E., P. Reid, N. L. Bindoff, K. Michael, B. J. E. Schroeter, P. Reid, N. L. Bindoff, and K. Michael (2019) Antarctic Verification of the Australian Numerical Weather Prediction Model. Weather Forecast.34, 1081–1096, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0171.1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0171.1

 

2018

Bindoff NL (2018), Warming and freshening trends, Nature Geoscience, 1     https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0239-9

Bindoff NL, Love PT, Grose MR, Harris RMB, Remenyi TA, White CJ (2018), Review of climate impact change work undertaken, research gaps and opportunities in the Tasmanian context: Technical report, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia.

Buchanan PJ,  Matear RJ, Chase Z,  Phipps SJ, Bindoff NL, (2018), Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005753

Harris, R. M. B., Beaumont, L.J., Vance, T. R., et al. (2018) Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events. Nature Climate Change 8, 579-587, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0187-9. [Q1]

Harris, R. M. B., Remenyi, T., Fox-Hughes, P., Love, P. & Bindoff, N. L. (2018) Exploring the Future of Fuel Loads in Tasmania, Australia: Shifts in Vegetation in Response to Changing Fire Weather, Productivity, and Fire Frequency. Forests 9, doi:10.3390/f9040210.

Harris, R. & Schoeman, D. (2018) Regional Climate-Information Needs for Ecological Studies and Assessment. In Expert Meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on Assessing Climate Information for Regions (eds W. Moufouma-Okia et al.) 52pp (IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, 2018)

Oliver, ECJ, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Holbrook NJ, Bindoff NL (2018), Anthropogenic and Natural Influences on Record 2016 Marine Heat waves, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99 (1), S44-S46

Rumm, A., Foeckler,F., Dziock, F., Ilg, C., Scholz, M., Harris, R.M.B., Gerisch, M. (2018). Shifts in mollusc traits following floodplain reconnection: testing the response of functional diversity components. Freshwater Biology 63:505 – 517. [Q1]

Yadav, S., Stow, A., Harris, R.M.B., Dudaniec, R. (2018) Morphological variation tracks environmental gradients in an agricultural pest, Phaulacridium vittatum (Orthoptera: Acrididae). Journal of Insect Science 18(6): 13; 1–10 doi: 10.1093/jisesa/iey121

 

2017

Harrison, P.A., Vaillancourt, R.E., Harris, R.M.B., Potts, B.M. (2017) Integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation to identify candidate seed sources for ecological restoration. Restoration Ecology ,25 (4) pp. 524-531.doi:10.1111/rec.12488 ISSN 1061-2971

Love, P. T., Fox-Hughes, P., Remenyi, T. A., Harris, R. M. B., Bindoff N. L. (2017), Impact of climate change on weather related fire risk in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area Climate Change and Bushfire Research Initiative, Technical Report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania.

ECJ Oliver, JA Benthuysen, NL Bindoff, AJ Hobday, NJ Holbrook, …, 2017: The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave, Published online 2017 Jul 14. doi:  10.1038/ncomms16101

 

2016

Hancock, N., Harris, R., Broadhurst, L. and Hughes, L. (2016). Climate-ready revegetation. A guide for natural resource managers. Macquarie University, Sydney. Accessible from: http://anpc.asn.au/resources/climate_ready_revegetation

Harris, R.M.B.; Remenyi, T.; Williamson, G.; Bindoff, N.L.; Bowman, D (2016) Climate – vegetation – fire interactions and feedbacks: major barrier or trivial detail in projecting the future of the Earth system? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. doi: 10.1002/wcc.428 [Q1]

Harris, R.M.B. (2016) Invited Book Review.”Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons from Practice edited by Tiago Capela Lourenço, Ana Rovisco, Anne-marie Groot, Carin Nilsson, Hans-Martin Füssel, Leendert van Bree, and Roger B. Street.” The Quarterly Review of Biology 2016; 91(1), 79-79. DOI: 10.1086/685320

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T., Kriticos, D., Bindoff, N (2016) Unusual suspects in the usual places: A phylo-climatic framework to identify potential future invasive species. Biological Invasions 10.1007/s10530-016-1334-8

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T. and Bindoff, N.L. (2016) The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Victorian Alpine Resorts. A Report to the Alpine Resorts Co-ordinating Council. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia. https://www.arcc.vic.gov.au/uploads/publications-and-research/The%20Potential%20Impact%20of%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Victorian%20Alpine%20Resorts%20Study_FINAL.pdf

Harris, R.M.B. (2016) Climate variability and biodiversity (past, present, future). Summary Report to the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) Natural Ecosystems Network. https://climatechangeresearch.network/nccarf/R.HarrisNCCARFNENWorkshopsummary.pdf/view

Love, P.; Remenyi, T. A.; Fox-Hughes, P.; Harris, R. M. B. & Bindoff, N. L. (2016) Impact of climate change on weather-related fire risk factors in the TWWHA – Part I. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart Australia, Antarctic Climate &Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart Australia.

McDonald, J., McCormack, P., Harris, R.M.B., Lockwood, M. & Fleming, A. (2016) How can conservation objectives in legal frameworks better facilitate biodiversity adaptation under climate change? Ecology and Society 21(2):25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08460-210225

Porfirio, L.L.; Harris, R.; Stojanovic, D.; Webb, M.H.; Mackey, B. (2016) Direct and indirect effects of climate change over three trophic levels on an endangered migratory species. Emu – Austral Ornithology MU10.1071/MU15094

Remenyi T, Harris R, White C, Corney S, Jabour J, Kelty S, Norris K, Denny L, Julian R, Bindoff N, (2016) Projecting volunteer resource requirements under extreme climate futures: technical report. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania.

 

2015

Cowan, T.; Forrest, S.; Guo, Y.; Harris, RM.; Huang, C.; Law, T.; Lewis, S.; Loughnan, M.; Wyrwoll, C. and Zhang, Y. “Group 1: temperature and extreme weather events”, Climate change challenges to health – Risks and opportunities. Recommendations from the 2014 Theo Murphy High Flyers Think Tank, Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, ACT, ISBN 978 0 85847. 414, pp. 6-9. (2015)

Fox-Hughes P, Harris RMB, Lee G, Jabour J, Grose MR, Remenyi TA & Bindoff NL (2015) Climate Futures for Tasmania future fire danger: the summary and the technical report, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania.

Harris, R.M.B.; Carter, O.; Gilfedder, L.; Porfirio, L.L. ; Lee, G.; Bindoff, N. (2015) Noah’s Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change. PLOS ONE 10(4): e0124014. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124014 [Q1]

Harris, R., McQuillan, P. and Lesley Hughes (2015) The effectiveness of common thermo-regulatory behaviours in a cool temperate grasshopper. Journal of Thermal Biology 54: 12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2015.06.001

Lechner, A.M., Doerr, V., Harris, R.M.B., Doerr, E., Lefroy, T. (2015) A connectivity modelling framework for characterising dispersal behaviour at local and regional scales based on fine scale dispersal behaviour, graph theory and Circuitscape. Landscape and Urban Planning 141:11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.04.008 [Q1]

Lechner, AM and Harris, RMB and Doerr, V, Doerr, E; Drielsma, M and Lefroy, EC (2015)  From static connectivity modelling to scenario-based planning at local and regional scales, Journal for Nature Conservation, 28 pp. 78-88. doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2015.09.003

Leith, P., Harris, R.M.B., Bridle, K., Kemmerer, E., Baldwin, A. and Diddams, L. (2015). A Means-to-an-end: a process guide for participatory spatial prioritisation in Australian natural resource management. Southern Slopes Climate Change Adaptation Research Partnership (SCARP): University of Tasmania.

Raymond, C.M, Lechner, A.M., Lockwood, M., Harris, R.M.B., Carter, O., Gilfedder, L. (2015) Private land managers’ capacities to conserve threatened and novel ecosystems under climate change. Journal of Environmental Management DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.048

Wallis, P.J., Turner, S.L., Harwood, A., Leith, P., Hamilton, L., Bosomworth, K., Harris, R. and Bridle, K. (2015) Southern Slopes Information Portal Report: Climate change adaptation information for NRM organisations in the Southern Slopes Cluster. Southern Slopes Climate Change Adaptation Research Partnership (SCARP), Hobart, Tasmania.

 

2014

Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R.M.B., Lee G, Grose, M, and Bindoff, N (2014) Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, 309–321

Gould, S.F., Beeton, N.J., Harris, R.M.B., Hutchinson, M.F., Lechner, A.M., Porfirio, L.L., Mackey, B.G. (2014) A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates. Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.1002/ece3.1319

Grose, M.R., Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R.M.B., Bindoff, N.L. (2014) Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania. Climatic Change 1-2: 255- 269 (doi 10.1007/s10584-014-1070-y)

Harris, R.M.B., Grose, M., Lee, G., Bindoff, N., Porfirio, L. and Fox-Hughes, P. (2014) Climate Projections for Ecologists. WIREs Climate Change 5: 621-637 (doi: 10.1002/wcc.291)

Porfirio L.L., R M.B. Harris, Sonia Hugh, Sue Gould, Greg Lee, Brendan Mackey, Nathan Bindoff (2014) Improving the application of Species Distribution Models for conservation planning and management under climate change. PLOS ONE DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113749

Williamson, G. J, Prior L, Harris R, Grose M, Bowman D (2014) Predicting canopy cover change in Tasmanian eucalypt forests using dynamically downscaled regional climate projections. Regional Environmental Change (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-013-0577-5)

 

 

 2013

Harris RMB, Porfirio LL, Hugh S, Lee G, Bindoff NL, Mackey B & Beeton NJ (2013) To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate, Ecological Management and Restoration.14 (3): 230-234 doi=10.1111/emr.12055&ArticleID=1177288

 

2012

Grose, M., Harris, R and Lee, G. (2012) IVG Forest Conservation Report 6. Future climate projections for Tasmanian IBRA regions. A report to the Independent Verification Group for the Tasmanian Forest Agreement. (http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/eefde0e6-0f83-486d-b0c3-8b1d25abc497/files/ivgconservation6climate.pdf)

 

Refereed conference papers

Fox-Hughes, P., Harris, R.M.B., Lee G, Grose, M, and Bindoff, N (2013) Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM), December 2013, Adelaide, Australia

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T., P. Fox-Hughes, Peter Love, Bindoff, N.L. (2017) An assessment of the viability of prescribed burning as a management tool under a changing climate. Peer reviewed research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference. Sydney, 4 – 6 September 2017

Harris, R.M.B., Remenyi, T., P. Fox-Hughes, Peter Love, Bindoff, N.L. (2017) Exploring the future of fuel loads in Tasmania. Shifts in vegetation in response to changing fire weather, productivity, and fire frequency. Refereed conference paper, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM), December 2017, Hobart, Australia

Harris, R. M. B., T. Remenyi, P. Fox-Hughes, P. Love, H. E. Phillips, and N. L. Bindoff (2017) An assessment of the viability of prescribed burning as a management tool under a changing climate: a Tasmanian case study, In M. Rumsewicz (Ed.) Research Forum 2017: proceedings from the Research Forum at the Bushfire Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC Conference. Melbourne: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC.

Harris, R. M. B., T. Remenyi, P. Fox-Hughes, P. Love, and N. L. Bindoff (2017) Exploring the future of fuel loads in Tasmania. Shifts in vegetation in response to changing fire weather, productivity, and fire frequency, in MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2017, edited by G. Syme, D. Hatton MacDonald, B. Fulton, and J. Piantadosi, pp. 1097–1103, doi:10.36334/modsim.2017.H10.harris.

T.A. Remenyi, P.T. Love, R.M.B. Harris, M. Thatcher, T. Rafter, N.L. Bindoff (2017) High resolution regional climate model simulations available through the ACECRC Climate Futures team: What we have and how they can be used. Refereed conference paper, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM), December 2017, Hobart, Australia

Remenyi, T. A., P. T. Love, R. M. B. Harris, M. Thatcher, T. Rafter, and N. L. Bindoff (2017) High resolution regional climate model simulations available through the ACECRC Climate Futures team: What we have and how they can be used, in MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2017, edited by G. Syme, D. Hatton MacDonald, B. Fulton, and J. Piantadosi, pp. 1222–1228, doi:10.36334/modsim.2017.H11.remenyi.

Other outputs:

Remenyi, T. A. & Harris, R. M. B. (2016) Understanding future fire danger. Asia Pacific Fire Magazine, Issue 58, July, 2016.

Conversation articles:

Harris, R. Bowman, D. Beaumont, L. July 5, 2018 – Ecosystems across Australia are collapsing under climate change https://theconversation.com/ecosystems-across-australia-are-collapsing-under-climate-change-99367

Earl, N., Love, P., Harris, R., and Remenyi, T. February 7, 2019 Dry lightning has set Tasmania ablaze, and climate change makes it more likely to happen again. https://theconversation.com/dry-lightning-has-set-tasmania-ablaze-and-climate-change-